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Hi Dave, a well considered post as usual, but I do feel the rule argument almost faltered in comment made by the person you cited who posed the question “why such a dynamic exciting sport was not more readily embraced by the public?” I would argue that the reason it is a dynamic and exciting sport is because of the rules and the skills of the fighters training to win by those rules.
Nevertheless, I agree with you that rules in a sport can have a bearing on popularity, and certainly when sports have mainstream appeal they do consider rule modifications to increase popularity further. However, I am not sure that the evidence is there that it is these rule tweaks that actual make the sport popular. I have considered the point you make a number of times, as I feel it is a reasonable one. Nevertheless, given evidence from other sports and for Muay Thai here in the past I do not think changing the rule would make a real difference.
While I have considered these arguments previously a number of times, as I am sure others have. I have come to the conclusion that scoring is not holding back the sport here in the UK, in actual fact it could be argued that it has contributed to improving the standard of fighters here.
I have been told by some top MMA fighters that scoring is not that clear in MMA, with judges' backgrounds tending to influence the weight they give to different aspects of the game, some placing more weight on take downs, other less so. A lack of clarity does not appear to have held back what is fast becoming a very popular and very well marketed product.
I really don’t think a rule change would make a real difference in regard to mass popularity, throwing loads of cash at it and good marketing might (but remember many millions were spent to make MMA popular). I am really not convinced making Muay Thai even more similar to a current product (K1 style kickboxing) would mean that it was going to be more popular. In fact it might be argued distinctiveness might make Muay Thai a reasonable alternative.
I do feel there are ways in which the sport could be become far more popular, but it would need serious investment, perhaps some repackaging and re-branding, but I think the actual rules used would make little difference.
For me to increase popularity you have to get the public emotionally involved with the athletes, they have to care enough to watch them, care enough if they win or lose. That may mean they intensely dislike some them or love them, but whatever the emotion involved they need to be engaged with the competitors. White-collar boxing is popular at a local level, not because of the rules or the standard of fighting (which is often very poor), but because people want to see those they have an emotional connection with compete, and either get hurt, humiliated or win.
Although the Internet offers a cheaper way they ever to gain some exposure, to get athletes enough exposure to a more mainstream public would take some serious cash or connections in the mainstream media.