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Yes, Adam Watt did well against Mike Bernado, but he did not do well in the K-1 Fukuoka tournament, unless you think that loosing by KO in the 2nd round is great?
I am not saying that the crowd is "the" factor if you loose, not at all. But it takes some tournaments to get use to fight in front of so many people, and to handle the fans, TV and journalist, without getting a little confused and distracted. Fighters like Hoost, Leko, Jerome, Filho, Aerts and even Pettas has been there before - many times, and as I see it, that is a big plus. But I agree with you Felix, it is not the crowd that makes you a winner or looser.
If Hunt was to fight Pettas, Aerts or Filho in his first fight, I will say that his chances would be bigger to make it to 2nd round. But Jerome in fight one is the worth draw he could pick... And If Hunt somehow should defeat Le Banner, then Leko or Hoost is the next in line. So it is going to be almost impossible for Mark to make it to the final. Well this is only as I see it!
I also think that Mark Hunt chances to win his first fight against Jerome, is bigger than Pettas chance against Ignashov! Aerts Vs Filho is even.