Ok Oliver. Here is how I would expect the Aerts-Filho fight:

First a comparison:

Height and reach advantage: Aerts
Punching power: Filho
Kicks: Even
Stamina: Even
Chin: Filho
Legs: Filho [slightly]
Technique: Aerts [slightly]
Experience: Even

Strengths

Aerts' strengths:
1] Experience. He has had enough tools to beat everyone: Hoost, Bernardo, Hug, LeBanner, Greco, you name it.

Filho's strengths:
1] Hard to hurt. Being a kyokushin champion means bare knuckle punches to the ribs.
2] Decent punching power.

Weaknesses

Aerts weaknesses:

1] Losing streak. This is his second year in a row where he didn't qualify for the Grand prix.
2] High kick. He hasn't landed this since the Sam Greco fight in '99.
3] Fear. Fighting Aerts used to be scary. Now that guys like Nobu Hayashi can last into the 5th round, no one is afraid and they all want to do what Abidi did. He gets no respect anymore.
4] Chin. At one time he could take some pretty hard punches. Those days are gone. He is easily rocked by counter attacks.
5] Health. Surgery on his elbow and weight loss. I wonder how much training he can do.

Filho's weaknesses

1] Movement. Mobile fighters can get in and out.
2] Hands. Usually looks for one big punch rather than combinations.
3] Consistency. Sometimes he is on fire and sometimes he is a punching bag. Will he come prepared for two events in a row?

Strategies

Aerts' strategies:

1] Use reach and movement to outscore Filho.
2] Use knees and grappling in the first two rounds to tire Filho then #1 in the third round.

Filho's strategies:

1] Pressure. Keep attacking so Aerts can't jab from the outside.
2] Be ready for the grappling. Push+combination. Aerts should be vulnerable recovering his balance.