I think Mezger has a change to last the distance. I only give him a 15% chance of winning though, by lucky punch or by decision. I think he has about a 30-40% chance of getting KO'd by Leko. In the fights I've seen of Leko's, I like his use of punching. Since punching is Mezger's biggest weapon, I don't see Leko getting beat in that area.

Mezger's Kickboxing experience mostly has come from much earlier in his career. Most of his experience is in MMA where his biggest losses have come from fighting Elite fighters, or they have been controversial decisions. Mezger was doing well against Lidell before Lidell turned the tides and KO'd Mezger. He was being agressive vs Vanderlei before Vanderlei landed a hard punch that changed everything. (I don't remember the exact details of those fights, just trying to recall from memory what I saw). I have noticed Mezger's style of standup fighting to have changed. He applies more knees know than he used to. He gets knocked off balance less. Things like that. I think his standup has improved in the last few years.

There's one thing to consider with MMA guys fighting in K-1. They really have nothing to lose. If they lose, well they are MMA fighters and don't normally train for just standup. So they have the ability to go balls-out from the beginning of round 1. They can take more chances while the K-1 guys are SUPPOSED to win, so they take less chances as they don't want to make a mistake and get KO'd like Bernardo did vs Goodridge in their first bout.